Humans are simply terrible at rationally evaluating risky decisions and reward. Our default state over-emphasizes fear of loss, amplifying the worst case scenarios or best case scenarios, and misjudging options to recover. We are overly content with single points of failure when we’re overconfident. We’re unreasonably scared of taking action when there is a possibility of failure.
Every choice and decision carries some risk or loss potential. Even deferring a decision is making a decision. Leaders must develop the skill of considering options and making decisions.
When I was 14 my Scoutmaster gave me a simple framework for thinking through a difficult decision. I’ve used it successfully for many situations in the decades since. Write out a table like this one on a sheet of paper:
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